[anti-abuse-wg] Certainty vs. Severity as a deterrent (was Notice: Fradulent RIPE ASNs)

In message <20130122102802.72514639 at shane-desktop>, 
Shane Kerr <shane at time-travellers.org> wrote:

>Ronald,
>
>On Monday, 2013-01-21 03:44:57 -0800, 
>"Ronald F. Guilmette" <rfg at tristatelogic.com> wrote:
>> I can't remember where anymore, but somewhere, a long time ago, I
>> read something about crime & punishment that basically said that
>> for crimes that are particularly easy to pull off, it can be easily
>> seen that those specific types of crimes will run rampant _unless_
>> the punishment for those few who get caught is made extremely harsh...
>> you know, so that anyone in their right mind would really have to
>> think twice before trying it, even in the odds are only one in a
>> hundred of ever actually getting caught.
>
>Contemporary research tends to suggest that increasing harshness won't
>help:
>
>    While the criminal justice system as a whole provides some
>    deterrent effect, a key question for policy development regards
>    whether enhanced sanctions or an enhanced possibility of being
>    apprehended provide any additional deterrent benefits. Research to
>    date generally indicates that increases in the *certainty* of
>    punishment, as opposed to the *severity* of punishment, are more
>    likely to produce deterrent benefits.
>
>http://www.sentencingproject.org/doc/deterrence%20briefing%20.pdf

We can agree to disagree about the deterrent value of "harshness",
however one part of the overall point I've been making is actually
supported by what you have quoted above.

Right now, if anything, the only iron-clad 100% certainty that party
who effectively defrauds either ARIN or RIPE out of number resources
can have is the 100% certainty that they will NOT by punished in any
way.... that they will not pay any sort of a penalty whatsoever and
that they will not even be publically named and shamed... unless that
is accomplished independently, by someone entirely outside of RIPE
and/or ARIN, i.e. by an independent researcher or journalist such
as myself.

As I have suggested, it is my belief that it is precisely this widespread
certainty regarding the utter lack of punishment for such crimes and
misdemeanors that effectively insures their continued proliferation.


Regards,
rfg