[address-policy-wg] New on RIPE Labs: 1, 000 /22 Allocated from Last /8

On 04/02/2013 13:13, Shane Kerr wrote:
> All,
>
> On Friday, 2013-02-01 15:09:58 +0100,
> Mirjam Kuehne <mir at ripe.net> wrote:
>> We allocated the 1,000th /22 from the last /8. Please read more on
>> RIPE Labs:
>>
>> https://labs.ripe.net/Members/ingrid/1000-slash-22s-allocated-from-last-slash-8
> Just so I understand...
>
>    It took 140 days to allocate 1000 addresses, or about 7.14 address
>    per day.
>
>    There are 2^14 /22 in a /8, or 16384.
>
>    At that burn rate, it will take about 2150 days to finish out the
>    last /8.
>        (16384 - 1000) / 7.14 = 2155
>
>    That's about 6 years, assuming things stay constant.
>        2155 / 365.25 = 5.9
>
> Based on Google's numbers, IPv6 has roughly doubled as a percentage of
> traffic for the last 3 years... if this continues for the next 6 years,
> we'll have about 70% of traffic over IPv6 when the RIPE NCC really,
> REALLY runs out of IPv4 in this region. (Of course, if it continues for
> 7 years then 140% of traffic will be over IPv6.) ;)
>
> It looks like there's likely to be a window of time where new entrants
> won't be able to get any IPv4 space, and a significant percentage of
> users will still be IPv4-only.
>
> Should we tweak the policy now to make it harder to get IPv4 address
> space, or wait a few years? It seems slightly unfair to future entrants,
> but the whole IPv4 allocation model has always vastly favored early
> entrants, so perhaps we shouldn't worry about it yet.
>
Deckchairs... deckchairs...

Nigel