[anti-abuse-wg] Bye Bye

Hi Marco, 

> > With some majors like Google starting to adopt it, and with only a few
> > years left for a v4 aftermarket, carrier grade nat etc to have any
effect,
> There is no noticeable v4 market and NAT is only relevant on the access 
> side. I don't do access.

I have to disagree with you, there IS a v4 market .. and people are already
in pain or are looking at how to fix their issue. 

Going native v6 isn't the fix for most of them, a majority of the LIR's NEED
to run dual-stack for a noticeable time ahead. 
Not because they can't run native v6, but because others don't run v6 at
all. 
Carrier Grade Nat (CGN) will break stuff in certain scenario's like VOIP,
some streaming video's, Xbox live connectivity and will cost you a lot in
storage for (abuse) logging. 
You will require boxes that aren't cheap either.. and in order to be able to
pinpoint that one customer that did a spam-run or portscan (as an example)
you will need to know exactly who used IP X, tcp ports range Z to Y at
timestamp. 

And with the current EU Data Retention Act, you may be forced to store that
information between 6 months to 24 months for legal reasons. (your mileage
may vary depending on the country you work in ) 
To give you an indication, a 1 milj. subscriber LIR, will generate per
subscriber about 5 to 96 Mb of logs per day (just headers from the CGN) that
is about 1Pbyte storage per 1M subscribers .. per month ..

 -
http://pc.denog.de/system/attachments/5/original/07-Grundemann-Carrier_Grade
_NAT.pdf?1353317223  See this very nice presentation from CableLabs about
CGN from Denog4 in November 2012. 

To give an indication, 1 Pb of storage will cost you about 6 racks filled
with disks, setting you back only in colocation cost about 5k US$ and
roughly an equal amount in power cost per month. 
So keeping it online alone will have an operating cost of 10k US$, not
including cost of purchase of the storage or management of the information
on it. 

So if you, for instance in my case, live in the Netherlands, you NEED to
store the information 12 months. Does that give enough background about why
people are looking into the IPv4 market ? 

The reason why people tend to say there is no v4 market, is not because it
is not here ... it is because the transfer policy is currently for a lot of
companies to restrictive. 
This results in movement of IP ranges not being updated in the actual
registry. Think about PI IPv4 being sold, but not transferred in ownership
to the new 'owner' 
Why ? Because the transfer policy doesn't allow for PI transfers... So
sometimes  a side letter is made, money is provided and things stay as it is
in the registry. Sometimes it is even sold, without such a letter I've seen.


The 24 month cool-down period for a range after a transfer ? Come on, if
money is to be made, it is foolish to think that people will take the high
road and sit on their resources. 
The current policies don't state that you can't move an LIR between legal
entities ... or just buy the complete legal entity that holds the LIR.
(stock transfers) 

There IS a market and people DO relocate resources in the above mentioned
ways... Wake up and smell the new reality. 

The more restrictive and difficult the policies are, the more creative
people will become. 
Should it be frowned upon ? Perhaps, but most of the people doing it, don't
care if someone would ask them why they would do it. Especially if serious
money is to be made (or if they can proceed signing up customers in the
years to come) 

WE as a community should make the transfer policies as transparent as
possible to make sure that the registry is up to date, because it is not
possible to restrict transfers. 

By maintaining all these transfer limitations, we will not prevent the
transfers, the registry will not be up to date AND if people that have a v4
surplus will move their resources to people who want to compensate the
current owners for it, so be it. At least the un-used IP's get used by those
that are willing/able to put money on the table for it.  

The RIPE NCC did a great job in the past in fair distribution, but their
role isn't in distribution anymore, it is to keep the registry up to date.
That is their #1 role for the future. 

Sorry for the long reply, but people who still think that there is no v4
Market haven't paid much attention to what is happening around them. 
See also the growing list of transfers on the RIPE website:
https://www.ripe.net/lir-services/resource-management/ipv4-transfers/table-o
f-transfers 

Regards,
Erik Bais