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RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995

  • To: NCC Contributors < >
  • From: Daniel Karrenberg < >
  • Date: Tue, 27 Jun 1995 13:14:28 +0200

Dear contributors,

pelase find below the report on "RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995".
It provides an overview of the number of European Local Internet
Registries and the associated revenue.  It provides historical data as
well as projections for the second half of 1995 and into 1996. 

A PostScript version follows the ASCII.

If you have any comments or questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.

Regards

Daniel Karrenberg
RIPE NCC Manager

                                            RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995

                                                           June 1995
                ____________________________________________________




                        RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995



                           Daniel Karrenberg
                                RIPE NCC



    Scope

                This  memo  provides  an  overview  of the number of
                European Local Internet Registries, the customers of
                the  RIPE  NCC  and the associated revenue.  It pro-
                vides historical data as well as projections for the
                second  half  of  1995 and into 1996.  The companion
                document  "RIPE  NCC  Expenditure   Planning   1995"
                describes the planned use of these funds.


    Local Registries 1993-1996

                The  total  number  of  local  IRs has been recorded
                reliably and in a comparable fashion for quite  some
                time.  Data is collected at the end of each quarter.
                The table below combines this historical  data  with
                my current projections until early 1996.

                               +---------------------+
                               |Quarter   Registries |
                               +---------------------+
                               |Q2/93         61     |
                               |Q3/93         75     |
                               |Q4/93         83     |
                               |Q1/94         96     |
                               |Q2/94        115     |
                               |Q3/94        130     |
                               |Q4/94        141     |
                               |Q1/95        179     |
                               |Q2/95        218     |
                               +---------------------+
                               |Q3/95        243     |
                               |Q4/95        275     |
                               |Q1/96        308     |
                               +---------------------+





                ____________________________________________________
                ncc-reven.txt                                 Page 1
                                            RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995

                                                           June 1995
                ____________________________________________________

                A  graphical  representation  of  this data looks as
                follows:

           350++---------------------------------------------------+
               |                                                   |
               |                                                   |
           300++                                              *A   |
               |                                            **     |
               |                                          *A       |
               |                                        **         |
           250++                                      *A           |
               |                                    **             |
               |                                   A               |
           200++                                 **                |
               |                                *                  |
               |                               A                   |
               |                             **                    |
           150++                            *                      |
               |                     **A***A                       |
               |                  *A*                              |
           100++                **                                 |
               |             **A                                   |
               |     **A***A*                                      |
               |   A*                                              |
            50++---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+
                   Q2/933/934/931/942/943/944/941/952/953/954/951/96


                There  is  a  pronounced  steepening of the curve at
                Q1/95.   This  increase  in  growth  rate  is   also
                observed  in DNS hostcount and registration services
                load data.


                     NOTE: In this memo the values for 2Q95 are
                     treated as "observed" although the quarter
                     is not completed yet.  The projected  val-
                     ues have been corrected with observed data
                     of May 28th or  later  and  carry  a  high
                     degree of confidence.













                ____________________________________________________
                ncc-reven.txt                                 Page 2
                                            RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995

                                                           June 1995
                ____________________________________________________

    Registries by Type and Size

                Since  the  beginning  of 1995 comparable data about
                the different types of registries  as  well  as  the
                associated  revenue  has  been collected.  The table
                below gives the details about  the  number  of  reg-
                istries:

                 +------------+-----------------+-----------------+
                 |            |    Observed     |    Projected    |
                 |Registries  |  Q4    Q1    Q2 |  Q3    Q4    Q1 |
                 |            |  94    95    95 |  95    95    96 |
                 +------------+-----------------+-----------------+
                 |            |                 |                 |
                 |  Large ISP |  17    17    18 |  18    19    21 |
                 | Medium ISP |  28    31    37 |  42    47    54 |
                 |  Small ISP |  51    84   115 | 134   159   182 |
                 | Enterprise |  14    15    16 |  17    18    19 |
                 |Last Resort |  31    32    32 |  32    32    32 |
                 |            |                 |                 |
                 |      Total | 141   179   218 | 243   275   308 |
                 +------------+-----------------+-----------------+


                The number of registries in the "Projected"  columns
                have  been  estimated  using monthly averaged growth
                rates corrected with particular  expectations,  such
                as the closure of a number of registries now handled
                by EUnet's central IR.  These projections have  been
                made  extremely  conservatively,  i.e.  they  do not
                extend the growth observed in Q1 and  Q2  even  lin-
                earily.

                The latest observed data (May 28th) is shown between
                the observed and projected quarterly data points for
                comparison.  It represents roughly two thirds of the
                Q2/95 period.
















                ____________________________________________________
                ncc-reven.txt                                 Page 3
                                            RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995

                                                           June 1995
                ____________________________________________________

    Revenue

                The following table shows the revenue  corresponding
                to the number of registries in the previous table:


                +---------------+-----------------+----------------+
                |               |    Observed     |   Projected    |
                |Revenue (kECU) |  Q4    Q1    Q2 |  Q3    Q4   Q1 |
                |               |  94    95    95 |  95    95   96 |
                +---------------+-----------------+----------------+
                |  Contribution | 488   573   656 | 691   714   ?  |
                |     Committed |   0   440   558 | 587   607      |
                |      Invoiced |   0   363   512 |                |
                |               |                 |                |
                |   Signup Fees |   0    74   152 | 202   266   ?  |
                |  Committed(*) |   0    74   152 | 202   266   ?  |
                |      Invoiced |   0    64   113 |                |
                |               |                 |                |
                |        Totals | 488   647   808 | 893   980      |
                |     Committed |       514   710 | 789   873      |
                |      Invoiced |       427   625 |                |
                |               |                 |                |
                |      Received |       195   443 |                |
                +---------------+-----------------+----------------+

                     (*)  Commitments  for  signup fees are not
                     recorded separately at this point in time,
                     however,  the  commitment rate of new reg-
                     istries is almost 100%.


                The  table  shows  quite  clearly that we can safely
                expect to have, by the end of 1995, commitments  for
                an  amount  of at least 873 kECU, which considerably
                exceeds the expenditures currently  planned  in  the
                1995  budget  (407 kECU).  The rationale for this is
                given by reading the table as explained in the  fol-
                lowing paragraphs.

                The  total NCC revenue sources are given by all reg-
                istries contributing their share, the Contributions,
                plus the signup fees received from new registries as
                they subscribe, the Signup Fees.  The first lines in
                each  section  represent  the amounts to be received
                assuming all registries would contribute what is due
                following the contributions model.

                The  "Committed" lines represents the amount commit-
                ted by signed service  agreements.   The  "Invoiced"
                lines  represent  the amount for which invoices have
                been sent out.  It must be noted that  amounts  com-
                mitted  and  invoiced  are  not directly comparable,
                ____________________________________________________
                ncc-reven.txt                                 Page 4
                                            RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995

                                                           June 1995
                ____________________________________________________

                because  commitments  are  made  on an yearly basis,
                while part of the invoicing is done  half-yearly  or
                quarterly.

                The  "Received" line gives the total amount of funds
                received.  By  comparing  this  line  to  the  total
                invoiced,  we  can see that the situation is improv-
                ing.  During 1Q95, in fact, only 45% of the invoices
                was paid, while to date (end of 2Q95) already 70% of
                the invoices have been already paid.

                The projected  "Contribution"  numbers  are  derived
                from  the estimated number of registries by applying
                the 1995 charging scheme. The commitments  projected
                are at 85% of the due value, which is very conserva-
                tive as the bulk  of  the  non-committed  registries
                have  been  carried from previous years and new reg-
                istries tend to sign the  agreement.  This  predicts
                the  income  for the RIPE NCC core services from the
                existing registries as well as possible, but conser-
                vatively.

                The projected "Signup Fees" are also algorithmically
                derived from the registry projection (shown  in  the
                previous  table).  At  the end of Q4/95 we expect to
                have invoiced a total of ECU 266k  in  signup  fees.
                This revenue is earmarked for the initial support of
                new registries.  It  is  reasonable  to  spread  the
                expenditure assuming an initial support period of 12
                months for each registry. With  this  assumption  we
                should  spend approximately ECU 174k on new registry
                support in 1995.

                The 1996 revenue cannot  be  predicted  because  the
                1996 charging scheme has not yet been determined.


    Conclusions

                The  RIPE  NCC  billing  and  cash-flow situation is
                excellent.  The new billing system and the  sanction
                "time permitting service" prove to be effective.

                The  currently  projected  1995  revenue of ECU 873k
                considerably exceeds the currently planned  expendi-
                ture of ECU 407k.

                ECU  174k  should  be  spent on support for new reg-
                istries in 1995.




                ____________________________________________________
                ncc-reven.txt                                 Page 5

Attachment: ps00000.ps
Description: PostScript document


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