RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
- Date: Tue, 27 Jun 1995 13:14:28 +0200
Dear contributors,
pelase find below the report on "RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995".
It provides an overview of the number of European Local Internet
Registries and the associated revenue. It provides historical data as
well as projections for the second half of 1995 and into 1996.
A PostScript version follows the ASCII.
If you have any comments or questions, please do not hesitate to contact me.
Regards
Daniel Karrenberg
RIPE NCC Manager
RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
June 1995
____________________________________________________
RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
Daniel Karrenberg
RIPE NCC
Scope
This memo provides an overview of the number of
European Local Internet Registries, the customers of
the RIPE NCC and the associated revenue. It pro-
vides historical data as well as projections for the
second half of 1995 and into 1996. The companion
document "RIPE NCC Expenditure Planning 1995"
describes the planned use of these funds.
Local Registries 1993-1996
The total number of local IRs has been recorded
reliably and in a comparable fashion for quite some
time. Data is collected at the end of each quarter.
The table below combines this historical data with
my current projections until early 1996.
+---------------------+
|Quarter Registries |
+---------------------+
|Q2/93 61 |
|Q3/93 75 |
|Q4/93 83 |
|Q1/94 96 |
|Q2/94 115 |
|Q3/94 130 |
|Q4/94 141 |
|Q1/95 179 |
|Q2/95 218 |
+---------------------+
|Q3/95 243 |
|Q4/95 275 |
|Q1/96 308 |
+---------------------+
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ncc-reven.txt Page 1
RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
June 1995
____________________________________________________
A graphical representation of this data looks as
follows:
350++---------------------------------------------------+
| |
| |
300++ *A |
| ** |
| *A |
| ** |
250++ *A |
| ** |
| A |
200++ ** |
| * |
| A |
| ** |
150++ * |
| **A***A |
| *A* |
100++ ** |
| **A |
| **A***A* |
| A* |
50++---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+
Q2/933/934/931/942/943/944/941/952/953/954/951/96
There is a pronounced steepening of the curve at
Q1/95. This increase in growth rate is also
observed in DNS hostcount and registration services
load data.
NOTE: In this memo the values for 2Q95 are
treated as "observed" although the quarter
is not completed yet. The projected val-
ues have been corrected with observed data
of May 28th or later and carry a high
degree of confidence.
____________________________________________________
ncc-reven.txt Page 2
RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
June 1995
____________________________________________________
Registries by Type and Size
Since the beginning of 1995 comparable data about
the different types of registries as well as the
associated revenue has been collected. The table
below gives the details about the number of reg-
istries:
+------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| | Observed | Projected |
|Registries | Q4 Q1 Q2 | Q3 Q4 Q1 |
| | 94 95 95 | 95 95 96 |
+------------+-----------------+-----------------+
| | | |
| Large ISP | 17 17 18 | 18 19 21 |
| Medium ISP | 28 31 37 | 42 47 54 |
| Small ISP | 51 84 115 | 134 159 182 |
| Enterprise | 14 15 16 | 17 18 19 |
|Last Resort | 31 32 32 | 32 32 32 |
| | | |
| Total | 141 179 218 | 243 275 308 |
+------------+-----------------+-----------------+
The number of registries in the "Projected" columns
have been estimated using monthly averaged growth
rates corrected with particular expectations, such
as the closure of a number of registries now handled
by EUnet's central IR. These projections have been
made extremely conservatively, i.e. they do not
extend the growth observed in Q1 and Q2 even lin-
earily.
The latest observed data (May 28th) is shown between
the observed and projected quarterly data points for
comparison. It represents roughly two thirds of the
Q2/95 period.
____________________________________________________
ncc-reven.txt Page 3
RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
June 1995
____________________________________________________
Revenue
The following table shows the revenue corresponding
to the number of registries in the previous table:
+---------------+-----------------+----------------+
| | Observed | Projected |
|Revenue (kECU) | Q4 Q1 Q2 | Q3 Q4 Q1 |
| | 94 95 95 | 95 95 96 |
+---------------+-----------------+----------------+
| Contribution | 488 573 656 | 691 714 ? |
| Committed | 0 440 558 | 587 607 |
| Invoiced | 0 363 512 | |
| | | |
| Signup Fees | 0 74 152 | 202 266 ? |
| Committed(*) | 0 74 152 | 202 266 ? |
| Invoiced | 0 64 113 | |
| | | |
| Totals | 488 647 808 | 893 980 |
| Committed | 514 710 | 789 873 |
| Invoiced | 427 625 | |
| | | |
| Received | 195 443 | |
+---------------+-----------------+----------------+
(*) Commitments for signup fees are not
recorded separately at this point in time,
however, the commitment rate of new reg-
istries is almost 100%.
The table shows quite clearly that we can safely
expect to have, by the end of 1995, commitments for
an amount of at least 873 kECU, which considerably
exceeds the expenditures currently planned in the
1995 budget (407 kECU). The rationale for this is
given by reading the table as explained in the fol-
lowing paragraphs.
The total NCC revenue sources are given by all reg-
istries contributing their share, the Contributions,
plus the signup fees received from new registries as
they subscribe, the Signup Fees. The first lines in
each section represent the amounts to be received
assuming all registries would contribute what is due
following the contributions model.
The "Committed" lines represents the amount commit-
ted by signed service agreements. The "Invoiced"
lines represent the amount for which invoices have
been sent out. It must be noted that amounts com-
mitted and invoiced are not directly comparable,
____________________________________________________
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RIPE NCC Revenue in 1995
June 1995
____________________________________________________
because commitments are made on an yearly basis,
while part of the invoicing is done half-yearly or
quarterly.
The "Received" line gives the total amount of funds
received. By comparing this line to the total
invoiced, we can see that the situation is improv-
ing. During 1Q95, in fact, only 45% of the invoices
was paid, while to date (end of 2Q95) already 70% of
the invoices have been already paid.
The projected "Contribution" numbers are derived
from the estimated number of registries by applying
the 1995 charging scheme. The commitments projected
are at 85% of the due value, which is very conserva-
tive as the bulk of the non-committed registries
have been carried from previous years and new reg-
istries tend to sign the agreement. This predicts
the income for the RIPE NCC core services from the
existing registries as well as possible, but conser-
vatively.
The projected "Signup Fees" are also algorithmically
derived from the registry projection (shown in the
previous table). At the end of Q4/95 we expect to
have invoiced a total of ECU 266k in signup fees.
This revenue is earmarked for the initial support of
new registries. It is reasonable to spread the
expenditure assuming an initial support period of 12
months for each registry. With this assumption we
should spend approximately ECU 174k on new registry
support in 1995.
The 1996 revenue cannot be predicted because the
1996 charging scheme has not yet been determined.
Conclusions
The RIPE NCC billing and cash-flow situation is
excellent. The new billing system and the sanction
"time permitting service" prove to be effective.
The currently projected 1995 revenue of ECU 873k
considerably exceeds the currently planned expendi-
ture of ECU 407k.
ECU 174k should be spent on support for new reg-
istries in 1995.
____________________________________________________
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