[members-discuss] Interesting IP count

Hi

First I am sorry for the number provide in the last email was not
correct, it should be 3.7B IP, in which left us about 80 IPs/server.

Second I want to make perfect clear that I have no doubts about how
serious IPv6 is, and how urgent we need to do it.

Just this article I saw today, in which I think it might be very
interesting to share with fellow colleagues as we are wasting 60% of
total world IP, and I guess we wasted about half of our IP pools as
well.

But Job you are perfectly right, this topic most of us has come over
multiple times, and I am sorry to bring this up again.

As I have been to Asian a lot, which is the first region out of IP
spaces, but I find out most of my Chinese colleagues have never
worried about IP issues.

Even China telecom are charging over 10USD/month/IP, most ISP are just
ok with it.

because end of the day, 10USD/month isn't a lot for enterprise customer.

NAT has limited functionality, yes, but for most cable network users,
that functionality is enough for them.

And, I just want to say that I am sharing few of my thoughts these
days about our IP problems, while I come across Atlantic in the past
few months and the thoughts and talk I had with people in different
regions and different organizations.

Hope it helps:)

On Tue, Jun 5, 2012 at 12:47 AM, Job Snijders <job at instituut.net> wrote:
> Dear Lu (and others),
>
> From what I understand you have doubts about how serious IPv6 is and why it's needed. You
> also carefully lay down some arguments and datapoints, which I appreciate. This topic has
> been discussed multiple times before on this list, nevertheless I think it will not hurt
> anybody if we go over some of the aspects of this subject again.
>
> Members-discuss@, I urge you to come forward with arguments why IPv6 is so desperately
> needed and invalidate what Lu Heng brought to the list. I would love to compile all
> reasoning into a document to be used in IPv6 workshops.
>
> Regarding the pro's and con's you've written:
>
>        - I agree IPv6 addresses are hard to remember, this is something that will not change,
>                 try to use automated DNS everywhere
>        - In terms of routing, IPv6 is just 96 bits more of address space, that's mostly what
>                 has changed.
>        - My guess is that IPv4 will but be available to everybody who needs it... up until
>                 somewhere in the year 2013 (RIPE region). Maybe you can put consumer subscribers
>                behind NAT's, but there are only so many portforwards you can make on inbound
>                tcp/25 or tcp/443.
>
> In these dark times I always enjoy listening to Randy Bush's soothing voice, this is a
> short video I recommend watching: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qh3i6lDqWBM
>
> Kind regards,
>
> Job
>
>
>
>
> On 5 jun. 2012, at 00:22, Lu Heng wrote:
>
>> Hi Colleuages:
>>
>> Today I come across an very interesting article which I'd like to
>> share with your guys and see what your guys think about it.
>>
>> http://ilia.ws/archives/236-ISP-Popularity-by-Domain-Count.html
>>
>> If what said in the article was true(which it should be as all the
>> data from the article should be public data), if all the cable network
>> start to use NAT, just in sense of domains, we might have IP supply
>> for few more decades.
>>
>> And it would be very interesting if someone from Ripe NCC can share
>> with us what is the most IP consuming business in the planet.
>>
>> In which, is that service can use NAT in sometime future?
>>
>> I talked to an UK telecom provider one day in a ripe lunch, he told me
>> that their network is already partly using NAT(sorry I didn't remember
>> his name, but I am sure he is on this mailing list), and he only need
>> a /21 for entire network.
>>
>> And another thing was, I heard from one of my friend in the Apanic
>> meeting, that someone is selling entire A class there for 10 USD/ IP.
>>
>> We don't know if there is already some successful story there
>> regarding IP sales. But seems to me, based on what happened on Asian
>> now, at least in China, as I heard from many of my colleagues there,
>> there was no real shortage there at this time.
>>
>> No body goes bankrupt because of no IPs left.
>>
>> So that raise an interesting point, since 60% of the world domain is
>> in fact wasted, is that the same story with IP usage. After all, we
>> allocated almost half of the pool before RIR even exists.
>>
>> The current way of IP distributing results a very noneffective way of
>> "past business" IP usage as well(e.g. someone changed their business
>> from cable business to an enterprise business, of course that guy will
>> not return Ripe NCC his additional free 2 M IPs).
>>
>> So when their is a real market for IPv4, and all the latency space
>> come to sale, will we last much much longer than everybody expected?
>>
>> We our-self have few dozen of enterprise customers, and they are
>> already paying 3-5 USD/ month /IP for years, as asking them to
>> re-program their software and re-provision their business into IPv6,
>> the cost will be enormous for them, and one more thing is, most
>> software writers don't really like IPv6, as it is hard to remember and
>> hard to type(it will be a whole lot easier if you just remember the IP
>> and type it every time you have to do so, rather than copy paste, we
>> all know the reason). So, even IP price eventually raise to 30USD even
>> 50USD, it is still very hard for them to switch it over to IPv6 as
>> long as they don't have IPv6-only client, because they are paying this
>> amount of money for IP per year anyway.
>>
>> Another thing is, one thing aside from RIR meetings and ISP meetings,
>> we didn't really hear a lot about IPv6. IPv6 come into developer is
>> still something new and interesting, and one guy I talked in the IPv6
>> workshop in the Ripe64, a software developer for an Austria local
>> company, who don't even know that IPv6 has been around for almost a
>> decades.
>>
>> Since Ripe is almost finish it's public pools, my last question is,
>> will one day all the wasted IP address being effectively picked up
>> because of existing marketplace, and that market place will last us
>> another 3 decades before we really going to IPv6 ear?
>>
>> Go Ipv6
>> Pro
>> Last forever(this reason doesn't really come into play because it this
>> can be a reason convince enterprise customer then it should be done 10
>> years ago.).
>> unlimited amount of address space.(same as above)
>> cost reasons.
>> con:
>> need new router new config new practice and testing almost every part
>> of the business(from software to hardware).
>> very hard to remember and write.
>> (welcome to add more on this list)
>>
>> IPv4
>> pro
>> you know how it works
>> it works for all of our business life.
>> it is easy to remember
>> con
>> cost reasons.
>>
>> But let's look at how much we are paying Ripe NCC now, for large ones,
>> they are paying more coffee in the office than they are paying Ripe
>> thing. So does that really hurts them when they pay 20USD per IP, look
>> at their margin and their current costs structure, I would say for
>> most business, it should be fine.
>>
>> If there is enough supply in the market for next decades, and keep the
>> price well below 50 USD per IP, I believe 99% of business would accept
>> this price and go on with their life.
>>
>> History already tell us most of us don't look too far to the
>> future(otherwise we are already there).
>>
>> Hope my a bit of 2 cents can get more interesting thoughts come around.
>>
>> --
>> --
>> Kind regards.
>> Lu
>>
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-- 
--
Kind regards.
Lu

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