From kristoff at belbone.net Wed Jul 14 08:53:44 2010 From: kristoff at belbone.net (Kristoff Bonne) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2010 08:53:44 +0200 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 exhaustian counter indicates today exactly 1 year if ipv4 left In-Reply-To: <4C29F47B.3010301@ripe.net> References: <4C29F47B.3010301@ripe.net> Message-ID: <4C3D5EF8.7070203@belbone.net> Hi, Just noticed in my iGoogle "bye bye ipv4" gadget that the "estimated X-day" is just 1 year from now. (see http://ipv6.he.net/statistics/ and http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html) Perhaps time for some kind of press-release by the RRS, or -for us as network admins- another mail to your management. Cheerio! Kr. Bonne. -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: smime.p7s Type: application/pkcs7-signature Size: 5140 bytes Desc: S/MIME Cryptographic Signature URL: From ahmed at tamkien.com Wed Jul 14 09:50:25 2010 From: ahmed at tamkien.com (Ahmed Abu-Abed) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2010 10:50:25 +0300 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left In-Reply-To: References: Message-ID: <97A8F04973E84364B83DC52FC1ACCFF9@mTOSH> Greetings, Today the IPv4 counters show there is 1 year left for IANA IPv4 depletion date or X-Day, more details on the IPv6 Forum website. Note that this is a conservative estimate as a few months ago the prediction was October 2011. A less conservative estimate taking into consideration exponential growth of IPv4 demand on a regional level shows April 2011 for X-Day, more at http://ipv4depletion.com/ Best wishes, -Ahmed P.S. Download the depletion counter gadgets for Win, Mac and iPhone from http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html From kristoff at belbone.net Wed Jul 14 11:32:51 2010 From: kristoff at belbone.net (Kristoff Bonne) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2010 11:32:51 +0200 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left In-Reply-To: <97A8F04973E84364B83DC52FC1ACCFF9@mTOSH> References: <97A8F04973E84364B83DC52FC1ACCFF9@mTOSH> Message-ID: <4C3D8443.7030805@belbone.net> Hi Ahmed, I noticed that a number of websites that gather information about the IPv4 depletion seams to indicate quite an increase in ipv4 consumation-rate. But sofar I have not found any information on the reason for this. Do you have any ideas on this? Just the economy taking steam again? Normal groth in a number of big markets (especially China)? Or something else? Has the "big final rush" started? Or both? Cheerio! Kr. Bonne. Op 14-07-10 09:50, Ahmed Abu-Abed schreef: > Greetings, > > Today the IPv4 counters show there is 1 year left for IANA IPv4 > depletion date or X-Day, more details on the IPv6 Forum website. > > Note that this is a conservative estimate as a few months ago the > prediction was October 2011. A less conservative estimate taking into > consideration exponential growth of IPv4 demand on a regional level > shows April 2011 for X-Day, more at http://ipv4depletion.com/ > > Best wishes, > -Ahmed > > P.S. Download the depletion counter gadgets for Win, Mac and iPhone > from http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: smime.p7s Type: application/pkcs7-signature Size: 5140 bytes Desc: S/MIME Cryptographic Signature URL: From ahmed at tamkien.com Wed Jul 14 15:41:36 2010 From: ahmed at tamkien.com (Ahmed Abu-Abed) Date: Wed, 14 Jul 2010 16:41:36 +0300 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left In-Reply-To: <4C3D8443.7030805@belbone.net> References: <97A8F04973E84364B83DC52FC1ACCFF9@mTOSH> <4C3D8443.7030805@belbone.net> Message-ID: <8AC2314160B24ABCB37879C629456A15@mTOSH> Hi Kristoff, What I have learned is exponential growth, plus better forecasts of the consumption rate as the address pool shrinks in size, resulted in bringing the depletion date forecast closer. As for the final rush, RIRs normally require proper forecasts before issuing the v4 addresses so I am not sure if, and how, a rush can happen. Best wsihes, -Ahmed -------------------------------------------------- From: "Kristoff Bonne" Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 12:32 PM To: Subject: Re: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left > Hi Ahmed, > > > I noticed that a number of websites that gather information about the > IPv4 depletion seams to indicate quite an increase in ipv4 > consumation-rate. > > But sofar I have not found any information on the reason for this. > > > Do you have any ideas on this? > > Just the economy taking steam again? Normal groth in a number of big > markets (especially China)? > Or something else? Has the "big final rush" started? > > Or both? > > > > Cheerio! Kr. Bonne. > > Op 14-07-10 09:50, Ahmed Abu-Abed schreef: >> Greetings, >> >> Today the IPv4 counters show there is 1 year left for IANA IPv4 >> depletion date or X-Day, more details on the IPv6 Forum website. >> >> Note that this is a conservative estimate as a few months ago the >> prediction was October 2011. A less conservative estimate taking into >> consideration exponential growth of IPv4 demand on a regional level >> shows April 2011 for X-Day, more at http://ipv4depletion.com/ >> >> Best wishes, >> -Ahmed >> >> P.S. Download the depletion counter gadgets for Win, Mac and iPhone >> from http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html > > > From gih at apnic.net Wed Jul 14 22:36:31 2010 From: gih at apnic.net (Geoff Huston) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2010 06:36:31 +1000 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left In-Reply-To: <8AC2314160B24ABCB37879C629456A15@mTOSH> References: <97A8F04973E84364B83DC52FC1ACCFF9@mTOSH> <4C3D8443.7030805@belbone.net> <8AC2314160B24ABCB37879C629456A15@mTOSH> Message-ID: <7AD0BAF3-E24F-489A-BD2B-A4AEDDCD87D2@apnic.net> There are a lot of details that are folded into modelling of real world systems, but ultimately they are just models and reality often has its own trajectory. It is useful to bear in mind that less that 1% of all individual address allocations across the world consume 50% of IPv4 addresses. And in recent times less than 20 providers have consumed about 25% of all IPv4 addresses. In other words the actions of a very small number of very large scale providers has a much greater impact on address consumption than the actions of a large number of smaller providers. While statistical models are good when looking at anticipated behaviour of large populations, they are pretty hopeless when looking at the behaviour of much smaller populations. Individuals do not behave in good statistical order! Given that the entire address consumption model is so heavily influenced by the actions of a few, it could be that the address pool is exhausted in the coming weeks. It is also possible that the remaining pool of addresses will last for a further 18 months. All the models can do is that given a particular perspective on the consumption behaviour of the recent past, the model attempts to provide a projection into the future. Frankly, anyone who thinks that the time to deploy IPv6 is still some months or even years away is playing a rather silly game. The topic of interest is not really about various models of exhaustion - the topic of concern to all of us is why out of all the ISPs in the region, the number who have integrated IPv6 into all their services is still frighteningly small. Geoff On 14/07/2010, at 11:41 PM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote: > Hi Kristoff, > > What I have learned is exponential growth, plus better forecasts of the consumption rate as the address pool shrinks in size, resulted in bringing the depletion date forecast closer. > > As for the final rush, RIRs normally require proper forecasts before issuing the v4 addresses so I am not sure if, and how, a rush can happen. > > Best wsihes, > -Ahmed > > -------------------------------------------------- > From: "Kristoff Bonne" > Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 12:32 PM > To: > Subject: Re: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left > >> Hi Ahmed, >> >> >> I noticed that a number of websites that gather information about the >> IPv4 depletion seams to indicate quite an increase in ipv4 consumation-rate. >> >> But sofar I have not found any information on the reason for this. >> >> >> Do you have any ideas on this? >> >> Just the economy taking steam again? Normal groth in a number of big >> markets (especially China)? >> Or something else? Has the "big final rush" started? >> >> Or both? >> >> >> >> Cheerio! Kr. Bonne. >> >> Op 14-07-10 09:50, Ahmed Abu-Abed schreef: >>> Greetings, >>> >>> Today the IPv4 counters show there is 1 year left for IANA IPv4 >>> depletion date or X-Day, more details on the IPv6 Forum website. >>> >>> Note that this is a conservative estimate as a few months ago the >>> prediction was October 2011. A less conservative estimate taking into >>> consideration exponential growth of IPv4 demand on a regional level >>> shows April 2011 for X-Day, more at http://ipv4depletion.com/ >>> >>> Best wishes, >>> -Ahmed >>> >>> P.S. Download the depletion counter gadgets for Win, Mac and iPhone >>> from http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html >> >> > From ahmed at tamkien.com Thu Jul 15 08:40:40 2010 From: ahmed at tamkien.com (Ahmed Abu-Abed) Date: Thu, 15 Jul 2010 09:40:40 +0300 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left In-Reply-To: <7AD0BAF3-E24F-489A-BD2B-A4AEDDCD87D2@apnic.net> References: <97A8F04973E84364B83DC52FC1ACCFF9@mTOSH> <4C3D8443.7030805@belbone.net> <8AC2314160B24ABCB37879C629456A15@mTOSH> <7AD0BAF3-E24F-489A-BD2B-A4AEDDCD87D2@apnic.net> Message-ID: <7891A734115845E1A6FA70C97A086D60@mTOSH> 1 day after this news and now there are 360 days left on the IPv4 counters ! While ISPs may be lagging behind, the content providers, websites and networked application providers are also quite late into adopting IPv6, with the notable exceptions of Google, Microsoft and Facebook among a few commercial application houses. People use applications and care less about networks, and public awareness is simply not there. -Ahmed -------------------------------------------------- From: "Geoff Huston" Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 11:36 PM To: "ipv6-wg" Subject: Re: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left > There are a lot of details that are folded into modelling of real world > systems, but ultimately they are just models and reality often has its own > trajectory. > > It is useful to bear in mind that less that 1% of all individual address > allocations across the world consume 50% of IPv4 addresses. And in recent > times less than 20 providers have consumed about 25% of all IPv4 > addresses. In other words the actions of a very small number of very large > scale providers has a much greater impact on address consumption than the > actions of a large number of smaller providers. While statistical models > are good when looking at anticipated behaviour of large populations, they > are pretty hopeless when looking at the behaviour of much smaller > populations. Individuals do not behave in good statistical order! > > Given that the entire address consumption model is so heavily influenced > by the actions of a few, it could be that the address pool is exhausted in > the coming weeks. It is also possible that the remaining pool of addresses > will last for a further 18 months. All the models can do is that given a > particular perspective on the consumption behaviour of the recent past, > the model attempts to provide a projection into the future. > > Frankly, anyone who thinks that the time to deploy IPv6 is still some > months or even years away is playing a rather silly game. The topic of > interest is not really about various models of exhaustion - the topic of > concern to all of us is why out of all the ISPs in the region, the number > who have integrated IPv6 into all their services is still frighteningly > small. > > Geoff > > On 14/07/2010, at 11:41 PM, Ahmed Abu-Abed wrote: > >> Hi Kristoff, >> >> What I have learned is exponential growth, plus better forecasts of the >> consumption rate as the address pool shrinks in size, resulted in >> bringing the depletion date forecast closer. >> >> As for the final rush, RIRs normally require proper forecasts before >> issuing the v4 addresses so I am not sure if, and how, a rush can happen. >> >> Best wsihes, >> -Ahmed >> >> -------------------------------------------------- >> From: "Kristoff Bonne" >> Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2010 12:32 PM >> To: >> Subject: Re: [ipv6-wg] IPv4 reaches a milestone: 365 days left >> >>> Hi Ahmed, >>> >>> >>> I noticed that a number of websites that gather information about the >>> IPv4 depletion seams to indicate quite an increase in ipv4 >>> consumation-rate. >>> >>> But sofar I have not found any information on the reason for this. >>> >>> >>> Do you have any ideas on this? >>> >>> Just the economy taking steam again? Normal groth in a number of big >>> markets (especially China)? >>> Or something else? Has the "big final rush" started? >>> >>> Or both? >>> >>> >>> >>> Cheerio! Kr. Bonne. >>> >>> Op 14-07-10 09:50, Ahmed Abu-Abed schreef: >>>> Greetings, >>>> >>>> Today the IPv4 counters show there is 1 year left for IANA IPv4 >>>> depletion date or X-Day, more details on the IPv6 Forum website. >>>> >>>> Note that this is a conservative estimate as a few months ago the >>>> prediction was October 2011. A less conservative estimate taking into >>>> consideration exponential growth of IPv4 demand on a regional level >>>> shows April 2011 for X-Day, more at http://ipv4depletion.com/ >>>> >>>> Best wishes, >>>> -Ahmed >>>> >>>> P.S. Download the depletion counter gadgets for Win, Mac and iPhone >>>> from http://inetcore.com/project/ipv4ec/index_en.html >>> >>> >> > From ahmed at tamkien.com Sun Jul 18 08:11:49 2010 From: ahmed at tamkien.com (Ahmed Abu-Abed) Date: Sun, 18 Jul 2010 09:11:49 +0300 Subject: [ipv6-wg] IPv6 Conference in Jordan - 29 July 2010 Message-ID: <422BD96B1F54480C83490D7CF0B3EF45@mTOSH> Hello everyone, I am glad to announce that a one day IPv6 conference will be held in Amman, Jordan on Thursday 29th July, and the conference agenda is attached. This is organised by the IPv6 Forum - Jordan Chapter with RIPE NCC participation, and if interested in attending or sponsorship then please let me know. Best wishes, Ahmed Abu-Abed VP, IPv6 Forum - Jordan -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: -------------- next part -------------- A non-text attachment was scrubbed... Name: IPv6 Jordan 1st Conference Program.pdf Type: application/pdf Size: 67479 bytes Desc: not available URL: From fred at cisco.com Wed Jul 21 15:20:06 2010 From: fred at cisco.com (Fred Baker) Date: Wed, 21 Jul 2010 09:20:06 -0400 Subject: [ipv6-wg] Looking for comments Message-ID: Hi IETF IPv6 Operations WG is looking at this draft, and we're interested in any comments you might have as well. http://tools.ietf.org/html/draft-arkko-ipv6-transition-guidelines "Guidelines for Using IPv6 Transition Mechanisms", Jari Arkko, Fred Baker, 12-Jul-10 From nathalie at ripe.net Thu Jul 22 10:39:07 2010 From: nathalie at ripe.net (Nathalie Trenaman) Date: Thu, 22 Jul 2010 10:39:07 +0200 Subject: [ipv6-wg] Addressing plan exercise for our IPv6 course Message-ID: The Training team has been working on an exercise for the IPv6 training course we deliver for LIRs. It's aimed at people who are unfamiliar with IPv6, so the goal is to get them to the point where once they get their IPv6 /32 allocation, they have a good idea how to subdivide prefixes over their network and how to write an addressing plan. Here's a PDF with the exercise (two pages A3): http://bit.ly/c7jZRJ We are curious to hear if you think it's clear and useful. Any feedback is greatly appreciated. Thanks, Nathalie Trenaman RIPE NCC Trainer (Big props go to Marco Hogewoning @XS4ALL) -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: From mir at ripe.net Mon Jul 26 11:05:32 2010 From: mir at ripe.net (Mirjam Kuehne) Date: Mon, 26 Jul 2010 11:05:32 +0200 Subject: [ipv6-wg] Updated IPv6 CPE Survey on RIPE Labs Message-ID: <4C4D4FDC.402@ripe.net> [apologies for duplicates] Dear colleagues, Since Marco Hogewoning published the first version of the IPv6 CPE Survey on RIPE Labs just after the RIPE Meeting in May, he found additional information. The most up-to-date matrix, including data we received from some of the vendors in the meantime is now published on RIPE Labs: https://labs.ripe.net/Members/mirjam/ipv6-cpe-survey-updated Should you have any additional experience with some of the equipment listed there, please leave a comment under the article or contact us at labs at ripe.net Kind Regards, Mirjam K?hne RIPE NCC