[address-policy-wg] Inter-RIR love as we approach IPv4 Stunde Null, was Re: [address-policy-wg] what to do about 2009-01?

> I do think this points to an area of possible concern. I have 
> often thought that as IPv4 resources become more limited, 
> people are going to start having problems. (What do you mean 
> I can't have a /18 for my new
> POP?) At that point, questions will be raised. (Why wasn't I 
> told?!

ARIN has solved this issue by sending a letter in the post to
the CEO of every LIR explaining about IPv4 runout and IPv6 
availability. If RIPE has not done so, it would be a good idea
to protect against lawsuits. 

> Why didn't somebody *do* something?!?!)

It would be good for the RIPE web site to have a page explaining
the history of IPv4 runout concerns leading to classful IPv4 addressing,
then VLSM and CIDR, then the development and deployment of IPv6.
Dates are essential to show that there was ample time for 
people to take action.

> Fingers will 
> be pointed. (Who's fault is this?!?!?!)

At some time, perhaps RIPE should start playing hardball in its
messages. Wouldn't it illustrate management incompetence if a
network operator has not already started their contingency plans
for IPv4 runout, and IPv6 deployment? I'm sure that if RIPE held
some free educational sessions for financial analysts in the 
major cities of Europe which host stock exchanges, that those
analysts would start asking some pointed questions during the
next quarterly reporting season. Frankfurt, Paris, Milan, London,
Moscow, Geneva and so on. 

> People or 
> organizations with little familiarity about the Internet and 
> its governance will step in, either of they want to or 
> because their constituents demand it.

Knowing that this wave of activity and concern is coming, RIPE
would be wise to step in front of the wave and lead the discussions.
On the one hand, there is no need to panic because lots of people
and organizations have been working hard in preparation. But on the
other hand, some percentage of organizations have their head in the
sand and will suffer, perhaps even to the point of bankruptcy. We
may have another telecoms collapse next year, due to the issues
surrounding IPv4 runout and IPv6 readiness.

Remember the big bank failures recently, that were triggered by
a sharp drop in the value of credit default swaps that was
the result of problems in the US mortgage market? Now, after the
fact we know that some people did see this problem coming, that 
they prepared their companies for the crash, and/or tried to warn
others what was happening. The IPv4 runout may not be such a major
event, but we are in a similar position as knowledgeable insiders
who are trying to get the message across. I think that as long as
we make the attempt to get the message out there, nobody will shoot
the messenger. The blame will correctly be placed on those who 
ignored the messages.

--Michael Dillon