[address-policy-wg] Does any kind of IPv4 transfer policy make sense

I've been thinking a lot about the various proposals for new IPv4
transfer policies, many of which seem to want to create a market for
IPv4 address blocks. In a recent discussion, someone suggested that
there are two things that RIRs can and should do, in order to mitigate
the effects of IPv4 exhaustion.

1. Reclaim unused allocations
2. Allow IPv4 address block transfers

In most of the discussions about IPv4 exhaustion, these two actions are
treated as separate activities. The first is an extension of what the
RIRs and IANA have already been doing for many years. And the second is
a wonderful new idea that will let organizations buy IPv4 addresses when
RIPE runs out.

But if you look closely and what "transfer" means, it becomes complex,
confusing, and very unclear. In my opinion, is transfer is not separate
from reclamation. In fact it *IS* reclamation. Instead of RIPE looking
for unused allocations, it is LIRs looking for unused assignments. What
happens after the unused addresses are identified is really not as
important as the fact that no reclamation/transfer can happen until
unused addresses are found. How likely is it that we will find unused
address blocks at a time when the fresh supply of IPv4 addresses has run
out?

The RIRs have always tried to have transparent processes surrounding IP
addressing. That's why we have the RIPE database which publishes a
directory of who uses any particular IP address range. But how accurate
is it. How many of these IP addresses are really in use?

As long as we assume that the RIPE database is basically accurate, and
that a higher percentage of all IPv4 addresses will be in a "used" state
when we reach IPv4 exhaustion, this implies that there will be very few
IP address blocks available to be transferred. And if that is true, this
implies that the price per address block (if selling is allowed) will be
very high, and rise over time as the unused addresses in the RIPE
database become more scarce. Those prices could very well rise to such a
high level that it is cheaper to simply buy out smaller companies and
disconnect less profitable customers in order to get access to their
address blocks.

I feel that we need to pay more attention to analysing what addresses
are really in use (used in source/destination headers of IP packets on
the Internet) and to providing support and education to LIRs so that
they can better audit their own allocations. 

--Michael Dillon