[address-policy-wg] 2007-05 New Policy Proposal (IPv6 ULA-Central)
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Geoff Huston
gih at apnic.net
Fri May 4 16:18:56 CEST 2007
At 11:08 PM 4/05/2007, Wilfried Woeber, UniVie/ACOnet wrote: >Geoff Huston wrote: > > > On 5/4/07, Gert Doering <gert at space.net> wrote: > > > >> > >> Hi, > >> > >> On Fri, May 04, 2007 at 11:54:22AM +0200, Shane Kerr wrote: > >> > The motivation for a version with a central registry however is not so > >> > obvious to me. The only justification I can think of is that you can > >> > be sure not to pick the same /48 as someone else has picked. But the > >> > chances of that are *billions* (that's "thousands of millions" to > >> > British folk) to one! > >> > >> Take the "birthday paradoxon" into account. Chances for a clash with > >> "someone else in the room" are actually much higher than the chance > >> for a clash with "a *specific* number out of the ame pool". > > > > > > > > The general solution of > > the probability of a collision after d draws from n possible values > > is given by: > > > > P = 1 - ((n!) / ((n**d)((n-d)!))) > > > > Given that the value for n is 2.199,023,255,552, then the objective > > is to find the lowest value of d for which P is greater than or equal > > to 0.5. In this case the value for d is some 1.24 million. > >That formula does apply under the assumption(s) that the draws >will be evenly distributed across the value space, correct? Yes, thats correct. Geoff
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