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Membership Growth Survey

Introduction

During the first part of 2004, the RIPE NCC carried out a survey of members asking those taking part to predict how many Local Internet Registries (LIRs) they expect there to be in their home country over the next two years.

For member activities and budgeting purposes, the RIPE NCC relies on annual membership growth estimates. This is particularly important when setting membership fees.

The primary aim of the survey was to enable the RIPE NCC to better plan for future growth. The RIPE NCC does already look at past trends and uses industry knowledge to predict growth. It was felt that these figures could be significantly improved by using the knowledge of the market and local conditions offered by our members.

The survey was available for eight weeks through the secure LIR Portal. When members logged into the survey they were presented with a summary of how many RIPE NCC Members were registered in their home country over the past five years, provding an indication of past growth trends. The RIPE NCC was not looking for exact figures, rather best estimates.

Who responded?

Response rates were good averaging at around 17% of all LIR Portal account users, resulting in 825 completed surveys. The majority of those who responded worked within technical or operational fields. Response rates did tend to vary across our service region. We had little from our African members, which makes the data perhaps somewhat less useful when predicting growth across that area. The chart below shows from where the responses were received for this survey.

Pie chart showing country participation

How did we interpret the responses?

For each individual country, we took a weighted average. This means that we looked at the spread of predictions around the overall average. Thus a lower weighting was given to respondees whose predictions differed significantly from the majority of responses received for each country.

From this we were able to look at the figures on a deeper level. We produced two ranges of figures. One showing a 65% probable broadband prediction for membership numbers at the end of 2004 and another showing a 95% probable range. These results can be seen in full here.

Overview graph of broadband predictions for growth
What did we find out?

The RIPE NCC uses variables to determine the growth percentages and formulate a broadband figure for growth over the coming year. These include recent growth trends, growth over the past 2/3 years and the number of closures in each country.

The RIPE NCC is currently suggesting that the broadband of growth for 2004 will be between 3530 and 3964 LIRs.

The survey has shown that, overall, our members feel that in 2004, numbers of LIRs will remain fairly stable. The figures from the survey fall into a similar range to those suggested by the RIPE NCC, though the upper and lower limits are extended slightly.

Those who completed the survey suggested a figure somewhere between 3352 and 4209, the average overall for 2004 though gives a figure of 3631, well within the RIPE NCC predicted range.

The overall result holds up throughout the survey with results from most countries predicting a similar though slightly wider band of numbers, in almost every case the average prediction from each country was well within the broadband figure suggested by the RIPE NCC.

Predictions for 2005 are, it appears, far more optimistic, suggesting members see an average growth of around 7-8%. The areas that seem to show the greatest optimism are Russia and the Middle East. Here growth rate predictions average at 12%. The RIPE NCC predicts a broadband total between 3610 and 4025 by the end of 2005, our members place the figure at 4085.

Taking a deeper look at the predictions from Russian LIRs, however shows that this optimism is not shared by all those who completed the survey in that country. There is a spread of almost 26% around the overall average. In the Middle East however, the spread is relatively low at just 13%, pointing to a geographical area in which a majority of members feel there will be growth far above the average levels seen elsewhere between now and December 2005.

Growth Prediction

The least optimistic results came from Eastern Europe. In most areas or countries, LIR broadband predictions for 2004 growth gave maximum ranges outside the broadband figure suggested by the RIPE NCC. In Eastern Europe, members predicted a figure between 482 and 583 (RIPE NCC broadband prediction is 540-610). The average prediction for 2004 is 485, down considerably on the current level of 545. The figure suggested for 2005 averaged out at 550.

The table shows the average figures predicted for each country for the end of 2004 and 2005.

Growth Prediction table

The results in more depth

The RIPE NCC Membership Growth Survey produced the following results:

Country Current Membership RIPE 2004 Broadband Prediction LIR 2004 Broadband Prediction Average Prediction 2004 2004 Probable figure (65%) 2004 Probable figure (95%) Average Prediction 2005

GERMANY

474

450-500

431-512

462

441-483

420-504

512

UK

435

420-460

401-474

430

408-452

386-474

457

RUSSIA

392

405-450

413-520

440

415-465

395-490

528

ITALY

263

255-285

243-301

268

249-287

230-300

289

NETHERLANDS

183

180-210

179-221

196

176-216

156-236

222

FRANCE

140

140-160

127-169

146

122-168

100-190

160

SPAIN

138

130-150

130-170

144

128-160

112-172

160

SWEDEN

138

135-155

140-170

144

129-159

114-174

163

SWITZERLAND

124

125-145

116-145

124

106-142

88-160

134

AUSTRIA

97

95-105

85-113

100

78-122

56-144

106

AFRICA

79

75-79

78-82

82

64-100

56-118

94

EAST EUROPE
(EXCLUDING RUSSIA)

545

540-610

482-583

485

471-564

457-578

550

MIDDLE EAST

182

170-195

153-249

187

172-202

157-217

239

NORTH EUROPE
(EXCLUDING SWEDEN)

222

225-250

210-263

227

216-238

205-249

255

OTHER WEST EUROPE

194

185-210

164-237

196

178-214

160-232

216

TOTALS

3607

3530-3964

3352-4209

3631

3353-3972

3092-4238

4085