[address-policy-wg] 2007-05 New Policy Proposal (IPv6 ULA-Central)
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Geoff Huston
gih at apnic.net
Fri May 4 14:00:06 CEST 2007
On 5/4/07, Gert Doering <gert at space.net> wrote: > > Hi, > > On Fri, May 04, 2007 at 11:54:22AM +0200, Shane Kerr wrote: > > The motivation for a version with a central registry however is not so > > obvious to me. The only justification I can think of is that you can > > be sure not to pick the same /48 as someone else has picked. But the > > chances of that are *billions* (that's "thousands of millions" to > > British folk) to one! > > Take the "birthday paradoxon" into account. Chances for a clash with > "someone else in the room" are actually much higher than the chance > for a clash with "a *specific* number out of the ame pool". The general solution of the probability of a collision after d draws from n possible values is given by: P = 1 - ((n!) / ((n**d)((n-d)!))) Given that the value for n is 2.199,023,255,552, then the objective is to find the lowest value of d for which P is greater than or equal to 0.5. In this case the value for d is some 1.24 million. http://draft-huston-ipv6-local-use-comments.potaroo.net Geoff -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: <https://lists.ripe.net/ripe/mail/archives/address-policy-wg/attachments/20070504/dc5481f9/attachment.html>
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